Other influences on the direction of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD this week will be U.S. Treasury Yields, the Dollar/Yen and Chinese commodity futures. I expect to see volatility and a two-sided trade because of headlines over the timing of the start of the tax reform debate. You have to be careful about blindly buying the AUD/USD or NZD/USD because of a weaker U.S. Dollar. Last Tuesday, the Aussie was down sharply when stocks broke, leading some to predict the collapse of the carry trade. This comes as a bit of a surprise because there is selling pressure on risky assets like U.S. stock indexes.
As it stated in
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the Week of March 27, 2017
ForecastThis week is another light week as far as major economic reports is concerned. So trade the Treasury yields not the headlines. For the week, the USD/JPY closed at 111.306, down 1.310 or -1.16%. The direction of the yields will dictate the movement in the USD/JPY. I saw the whole thing with my own eyes and watched the procedures down to the very end on Friday.
USD/JPY Fundamental Forecast – March 27, 2017
Besides equity prices, USD/JPY investors need to pay close attention to Treasury yields. Technical factors could come into play later today as the USD/JPY approaches a major retracement zone at 109.919 to 107.856. The Dollar/Yen could turnaround today if Trump or the Republican House announce the start of tax reform. Investors are reacting to lower equity prices in the U.S., a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. Flight to safety buying is helping to drive down the USD/JPY early Monday.
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