We think that Q1 GDP growth is going to be a weak 0.1% versus the RBA forecasts for a 0.7% lift. It even flagged a moderation in housing market conditions, an area it was scrutinising heavily given a perceived increase in financial stability risks. We think there are good reasons to believe that the pace of economic growth may have stepped down in a sustained fashion. But in our view, policy easing is off table unless the housing market falters or the unemployment rate materially rises. Paul Brennan, CitibankThe statement is similar to last month, with little hint of any change to the policy rate in the near future.
As it stated in
In leaving interest rates on hold at record lows for the 10th consecutive month on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank was more optimistic. "Government consumption rose just 1 per cent quarter on quarter, and more significantly, public capital expenditure posted a large decline of 2.7 per cent." The more house prices calm down, the more room the Reserve Bank has to cut rates by minimising the risk of stoking the market. The National Australia Bank has forecast a negative result of -0.1 per cent. "This more conservative forecast is broadly consistent with the Reserve Bank, international organisations and private sector economists," he said.
collected by :John Miller
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